According to a five-year forecast filed with the Ohio Department of Education in May by the Boardman Local School District (BLSD), the local public school system anticipates receiving more than $5.6 million in revenues in 2021, that it reported as actual expenses in fiscal year 2018.
      The report, prepared by BLSD Treasurer Nick Ciarniello, says the Boardman Local School District had ‘actual’ revenues of $44.2 million in fiscal year 2018.
      By fiscal year 2021, the report says ‘projected’ revenues will be $49.8 million.
      During the same time frame, expenses are projected to increase by $2.9 million by 2021, according to the forecast.
      In fiscal year 2018, the forecast shows ‘actual’ expenses of the BLSD were $46.3 million, or some $2.13 million more than the district received in actual revenues.
      The forecast projects expenses of $49.2 million in 2021.
      Despite trends of declining enrollment over the past decade, cost of wages and salaries for the district are projected to increase by some $1.6 million by 2021, while the cost of retirement and insurance benefits are projected to increase by $982,482.
      When combined, salaries and wages, and retirement and insurance benefits for the Boardman Local School District are projected to increase by slightly more that $2.5 million by fiscal year 2021, according to the five-year forecast.
      Following are statements contained by the May, 2019 five-year forecast:
      Forecast Risks and Uncertainty
      A five-year financial forecast has risks and uncertainty not only due to economic uncertainties but also due to state legislative changes that will occur in the spring of 2019 and 2021 due to deliberation of the next two state biennium budgets, both of which affect this five year forecast. Estimated revenues and expenses are based on the best data available...at the time of this forecast. The items below give a short description of the current issues and how they may affect our forecast long term:
       I. Mahoning County experienced a reappraisal update in the 2017 tax year to be collected in FY18. Residential values increased slightly by 1.26% and commercial values declined by .54%. The next update the district will experience a reappraisal in 2020 and [the district] have assumed a 1% modest growth for residential values and 0% growth for commercial values in that update.
       II. HB49, the new state budget continues the TPP Fixed Rate Reimbursement phase-out continuing the language provided for in SB208 that will lower the payment each year by what five-eights (5/8) of 1 mill would raise locally, based on the 3 year average of Tax Year 14-16 assessed district values. The phase out of the Fixed Rate will be complete in FY18. In FY15 the district received $2.5 million in TPP state reimbursement. The state caps [subsidies to the Boardman Local School District that is] not fully funded to help make up for this drastic cut in TPP funds. After FY18, the risk of further TPP cuts is eliminated. In FY19 the state funding formula says [the Boardman Local School District] is owed $3.3 million more than [it is] being paid since being ‘capped.’
       III. The State Budget represents 29% of district revenues, which means it is a significant area of risk to revenue. The risk comes in FY20 and beyond if the state economy worsens or if the funding formula in future state budget reduces funding to the district. There are two future State Biennium Budgets covering the period from FY20-21 and FY22-23 in this forecast. Future uncertainty in both the state foundation funding formula and the state’s economy makes this area an elevated risk to district funding long range through FY23. The Boardman Local School District has projected its state funding to be inline with current estimates through FY23 which...are conservative and should be close to whatever the state approves for the FY20-21 biennium.
      The district will make adjustments to the forecast in November when factual data is available following adoption of the state budget in late June 2019.
       IV. The district has two levies that will expire during this five year forecast period. A 5.9 and 6.0 mill current expense levies expiring in 2021. Both of these levies are critical and are necessary to keep the district financially healthy long term. While all these levies have been renewed before should either fail there will be serious consequences for the districts financial stability.